tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-91646120393945462402024-03-16T18:22:10.427-07:00Social Psychology in the Information AgeThe blog of Dr. Arlin James Benjamin, Jr., Social PsychologistUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger347125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9164612039394546240.post-77636490790239260982024-02-29T21:11:00.000-08:002024-02-29T21:11:57.195-08:00Personal Update<p>It's been a while since I've said much about my own life. Leap Day seems as good a time as any. I have been quiet in terms of blogging and social media for a bit because I have simply been enormously busy. I have taken on some extra adjunct gigs to deal with the effects of inflation, since cost of living increases are very few and far between these days, and to pay down some family medical expenses. Much of my life is spent grading and making sure course links still work. It doesn't mean I don't go to conferences (I still do) or publish (I quietly finished a chapter on authoritarianism a few weeks ago), but that is not currently my primary focus. I have plenty I would love to discuss, but the time to really put the necessary thought into those topics simply does not exist. When it does, I will post here. In the meantime, cheers. <br /></p>James Benjaminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05696057339996056906noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9164612039394546240.post-29932600719886080432024-02-27T11:36:00.000-08:002024-02-27T11:36:35.992-08:00The psychology of anti-vax bias<p>Ron Riggio has a <a href="https://www.psychologytoday.com/intl/blog/cutting-edge-leadership/202401/to-vax-or-not-to-vax-the-psychology-of-anti-vax-bias" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">handy primer</a> on how to be best informed about vaccinations, the sort of information to trust, and various biases that can be problematic. A lot of his post is a good application of basic judgment and decision-making research. As a general rule, I agree with getting information from reliable sources, and that social media are rife with disinformation. That said, I did follow a number of well-respected virologists and epidemiologists in what used to be Twitter between 2020 and 2022, and found their posts quite informative. Here's the catch: they also relied on reputable sources (e.g., CDC, rigorous empirical research, etc.). <br /></p>James Benjaminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05696057339996056906noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9164612039394546240.post-1259577342153796632023-08-20T13:14:00.003-07:002023-08-20T13:16:01.568-07:00The decline of the public university <p>I'm going to point you to <a href="https://www.thenation.com/article/society/wvu-cuts-higher-education/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">an article</a> by Lisa Corrigan who writes about the recent "restructuring" of West Virginia University, and what it means for the rest of us who work in public colleges and universities, whether flagship institutions, or regional colleges and universities (like me). WVU's administrators hired a consulting firm to determine programs to put on the chopping block, and it is doing away with quite a number of majors, including all of its majors in the languages. About 16% of its faculty will be laid off in the process. I write this as my university is doing a program viability study, and I worry about what the outcome of its recommendations will be. </p><p>If you want a more tl:dr version, Dr. Corrigan posted a thread on the platform formerly known as Twitter:</p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/DrLisaCorrigan/status/1693252473152999436">https://twitter.com/DrLisaCorrigan/status/1693252473152999436</a></p><p>The enrollment cliff has been used as a cudgel for much of my professional career - at least since the Great Recession came and went. What I suspect will happen is what Dr. Corrigan says quite bluntly: we will end up with a two-tiered higher education situation where the privileged will have more opportunities to enrich themselves intellectually, and the rest of our students, especially in rural public universities will just have to get used to fewer options. After all, workforce development is the big buzzword these days. We'll also see a future in which institutions operate with fewer full-time faculty, with the ensuing decline in quality that comes with understaffed programs. This was not the future I wanted for our next cohorts of students. Unless there is a huge fuss made regarding adequate funding for our institutions and a move back to ensuring academic freedom that is untouched by legislators, this is the future that awaits. It is bleak.<br /></p><br />James Benjaminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05696057339996056906noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9164612039394546240.post-36982674458498904662023-07-25T20:13:00.002-07:002023-07-25T20:13:42.354-07:00Political intereference in the classroom is increasing, and that should disturb all of us<p>Reading <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2023/07/25/texas-a-m-professor-opioids-dan-patrick/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">this story</a> about how a simple guest lecture almost led to this Texas professor's firing was unsettling, to say the least. Although I don't know Dr. Joy Alonzo's work, it appears that she's a respected expert on the opioid crisis in the US. The content of her lecture, at least from the PowerPoint slides available, suggest she had a matter-of-fact presentation of the opioid crisis, as well as policies that could mitigate or exacerbate the problem. She just happens to work in Texas, which has arguably managed to make that particular situation worse. Any expert who understands the impact of public policy is inevitably going to end up saying something when state or national policies are doing more harm than good. Politicians may not like that fact, nor may partisans of any stripe, but that is how professionals work. Her reward for offering her expertise to a class at another university was to end up on paid leave and investigated - and nearly fired. Why? Some of the content of the lecture might have offended the Lt. Governor of Texas. She managed to dodge a bullet, as no evidence of wrong-doing could be found, but I can only imagine that she regrets the day she joined the Texas A&M faculty. </p><p>Let me step back for just a moment. I am in the behavioral and social sciences. When I started my first position at Oklahoma Panhandle State University, I quickly became friends with a then-junior faculty member in my department who was and probably is considerably more conservative than I am. We are still good friends although we each work in completely different locations now. One thing we shared in common was a belief that we both expressed often: social scientists are equal opportunity offenders. If we are doing our job right as educators and researchers, we're going to present evidence that will end up upsetting someone. That's not because we enjoy upsetting our intended audiences, but because facts can be inconvenient, depending on one's worldview. I also believe that since our research output can inform policymakers, we have an obligation to call them out when they are misunderstanding our work, misusing our work, or ignoring our findings at the expense of the greater social good. If these decision-makers are unhappy with our informed opinions, that's their problem. At least that's how it should be. I take the same view with students. Some course content will inevitably challenge beliefs and maybe that leads to some cognitive dissonance, or whatever. I can't just change the facts to please others. My job is to make the evidence available. What students choose to do with that information is up to them, and quite frankly, I have little interest in what they do with that information once the course is finished for the term. As a result, some semesters my course evaluations can look a bit bleak. Imagine a simple introductory course in Psychology that includes materials about research on gender that go against what a subset of students may have learned in Sunday School. I'll get flak for the simple fact that the information is in the textbook, and that I may have tested on that information. So it goes.</p><p>In mentioning all of this I do know that I am working during a difficult moment in higher education. The tendency for legislators, primarily in Republican-run states in my country, to micromanage our instruction and research is only intensifying. Texas and Florida are probably the most obvious examples, but any of us in the so-called "red states" are at risk of being cancelled. I expect things to get worse before they get better. I can hope that the tide turns back in favor of rational thought, defended with empirical evidence, and that this era of filtering all data and ideas through tribal grievances will end with minimal collateral damage to careers and to students' ability to function after college. Then again, I am well aware that hope and $1.50 might buy you a candy bar, and little else.<br /></p>James Benjaminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05696057339996056906noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9164612039394546240.post-84510311537385042182023-07-15T14:43:00.001-07:002023-07-15T14:43:05.123-07:00America's Confidence in Higher Education is Dropping<p>You can read the article <a href="https://www.axios.com/2023/07/11/american-confidence-higher-education-low" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">here</a>. The article and the poll don't give much in the way of context for why Americans' confidence in higher education has dropped so precipitously. Apparently some measure of political party affiliation was used, so that helps a bit. Apparently, if you analyze the cross-tabs, you'll find that generally, those who identify as Democratic have had relatively higher amounts of confidence in higher education relative to those who identify as Republican or Independent, and that seems to be a consistent pattern across time. However, since 2015, confidence has dropped among all polled regardless of party affiliations. I suppose university and college administrators in blue states can take some consolation in the finding that as of 2022, more the half of Democrats were confident in higher education as an institution, but even that is a noticeable decline from 2015. </p><p>I'll speak only anecdotally for the time being, as I don't have the time or energy to really do a deep dive into other data on the matter. I've noticed a tendency, usually political and deeply partisan, to attack colleges and universities. There was and still is a moral panic about not enough ideological conservatives being hired at institutions of higher education. I've seen that tired attack for as long as I've been an educator. I guess I don't see it at the sort of regional colleges and universities that would typically hire or at least interview me, and I've looked. There's definitely a moral panic over the content we teach in our courses, and I've seen so much fuss made about CRT and "wokeness"at colleges and universities that I'm pretty much numb to such attacks. There isn't much "woke" about means and standard deviations, folks. So it goes. I think I can understand how those who regularly rely on Fox News for their information my have changed their attitudes toward colleges and universities. I wonder if our colleges and universities are increasingly seen as not doing enough by at least some subsection of those who identify as Democratic. I'm pretty jaded about most DEI statements and offices at universities like mine. I wonder if that jadedness is shared. Then there is the ongoing problem about the increasing student loan burden that students and parents alike deal with in order to obtain degrees that, while leading to nominally middle-income careers, are not lucrative enough to pay back those loans. </p><p>There's so much to unpack, and I think that particular article gives us only a minimal amount of information to go on. At least we know what the topline numbers are. We just don't entirely know what they mean. And we need to understand better what is going on behind those numbers in order to make sure we can as institutions defend ourselves in an increasingly difficult political and social environment.<br /></p>James Benjaminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05696057339996056906noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9164612039394546240.post-73014911165882651312023-03-10T13:49:00.004-08:002023-03-10T13:49:42.579-08:00Friendly reminder: Masks work<p>Since we are going to be dealing with COVID-19 for a while to come, it's useful to remind readers that the overwhelming evidence is that <a href="https://billius27.substack.com/p/masks-evidence-and-use" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">masks (especially N-95) work quite well</a>. As we've known for a long while, COVID-19 is transmitted through airborne particles. Thankfully, we don't have to worry about fomites for that particular virus. The article I linked to offers plenty of evidence about how the virus spreads, including the current Omicron variant and subvariants, which are highly transmissible. There's some advice for reusing N-95 masks, which is helpful, given their expense. You will want to refresh your supply regularly. Even a poorly fitting N-95 mask is far better than being unmasked if there are people in the vicinity who have COVID-19. Chances are you're probably less likely to be exposed if you are outdoors than indoors, and while indoors, good ventilation matters. </p><p>Masks, like other mitigation measures, became needlessly politicized in 2020, and we are paying the price globally as a consequence. Prevention measures generally are good common sense. If you can keep your face covered, you reduce your risk of contracting COVID-19 and transmitting COVID-19. That's a good thing. If you have the ability to physically distance when there is an outbreak (as there will continue to be for a while), you're better off doing so. Even though fomites are not an issue, I'd still advocate for good hand hygiene. Ultimately, though, you have to figure out your own situation and how much risk you can afford to take. Those with pre-existing health conditions or who are young at heart but not so much chronologically should probably mask up at minimum, at least indoors. If you can get vaccinated, it is in your best interest to do so. For the record, my spouse and I have both had our original two COVID vaccines, and any subsequent boosters made available to us. They're no guarantee, and I know my spouse did test positive for COVID-19 in early December 2022. However, thanks to detecting it early and getting her on Paxlovid, she had minimal symptoms and avoided hospitalization (and this is someone who can easily get bronchitis or pneumonia). </p><p>Stick to solid science. Tune out the demagogues. You'll be better off, and so will anyone else in your life.<br /></p>James Benjaminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05696057339996056906noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9164612039394546240.post-36235621420578216152023-01-01T20:40:00.002-08:002023-03-10T22:18:34.974-08:00Welcome to another new year<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyQPIaMs0vOuTKNmMY1DQhenO6f5rS-XxyQGBCPgtCrkVyVbch0Q-jAHUbKWPqUSAP11MNIPQOKv3o2J17N3ht9hYmcViklC_hVucIVed5PXXbZuZ-Qm_M_xV7UXc-pkLQx9pBa0fSWA3Ept5-weuYMrpTHRsnSmBeKMOxQvjCuZGEXHzmdH9LTeGH_g/s1600/2023.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="900" data-original-width="1600" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyQPIaMs0vOuTKNmMY1DQhenO6f5rS-XxyQGBCPgtCrkVyVbch0Q-jAHUbKWPqUSAP11MNIPQOKv3o2J17N3ht9hYmcViklC_hVucIVed5PXXbZuZ-Qm_M_xV7UXc-pkLQx9pBa0fSWA3Ept5-weuYMrpTHRsnSmBeKMOxQvjCuZGEXHzmdH9LTeGH_g/w400-h225/2023.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><p></p><p><i>Image Source: Getty Images</i></p><p>Another calendar year has come and gone. In many ways, it was a busy year. I have spent much of my time in the classroom (physically and virtually), have scored AP Psychology free recall question responses in person for the first time since 2019, and have chaired or attended my share of committee meetings. I attended a virtual conference with small-time social science organization that has been part of my extended family for a long time, and presented a paper on the replication crisis in the behavioral and social sciences. I caught portions of the SIPS conference, since I could attend virtually. I'm thinking my days of bankrolling a lot of travel for conferences are numbered, if not simply over. I don't have the personal budget, and my university (like similar comprehensive public regional universities) is too cash-strapped, and likely will be for the foreseeable future. I continue to adjunct, and probably will over the next few years unless circumstances change for the better.</p><p>This past year was one where, in spite of the chaos, I came to terms with some stark realities about my career. It's safe to say that the days when I could at least delude myself into thinking I could make one more move into the R-2 institutions and have at least some access to resources needed to do the work I had once set out to do are over, finished, kaput. It's pretty obvious if one checks any of my research profiles that I am just not all that prolific an author these days. I've put off projects that once upon a time would have excited me. 2022 was the year when I simply faced up to the fact that I just wasn't that person anymore. It's been a long journey, but I find some peace with the acceptance of my current circumstances. I won't have the resources, such as lab space, to run experiments, or even participate in multi-lab experiments or studies. I won't have the resources to bring undergraduate students to academic conferences. Within the confines of my limited resources, I can do a few other things, such as prepare students to be savvy consumers of research. I can help prepare them to use the skills they learn along the way in whatever career or vocation they end up choosing as time passes. As my own department changes, I can do what I can to shape and implement its vision. That's about it, really. </p><p>With a plan to retire sometime between 70 and 75, I have about 13-18 years left to do what I can as an educator to leave my little corner of the psychological sciences in a better place. After that? My first publications were poems and haiku. I'll most likely go back to that, and focus much more on landscape photography. In the meantime, I'll keep this blog going, for any who might be interested. I still have plenty to say about the state of the science of psychology, and of the academic world itself. </p>James Benjaminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05696057339996056906noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9164612039394546240.post-38305827008770799182022-11-22T11:50:00.003-08:002022-11-22T11:50:24.286-08:00One thing mass shooters have in common<p>If you are someone who likes to place bets, one safe bet is that the next mass shooting perpetrator <a href="https://injepijournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s40621-021-00330-0" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">will have a history of domestic violence</a>. The majority of mass shootings tend to be domestic violence-related. In other words, the perpetrator is attacking a spouse, an ex, and/or other family members. In other mass shooting incidents, the perpetrator may not be targeting partners or family, but <a href="https://everytownresearch.org/maps/mass-shootings-in-america/#domestic-violence-was-a-part-of-most-mass-shootings" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">have a history of domestic violence in their past</a>. That often shows in police records, etc. So keep that in mind when looking for risk factors. </p><p>The other factor that appears to interact with a history of domestic violence is consumption of violent rhetoric targeting specific social groups based on ethnicity, religion, gender/gender orientation, or sexual orientation. The recent mass shooting at an LGBTQ club in Colorado Springs appears to be tied to <a href="https://www.vice.com/en/article/dy7jzz/colorado-springs-shooter-threatened-mother-domestic-violence" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">hateful rhetoric targeting the LGBTQ community, as well as legislation discriminating against our LGBTQ peers</a>. Words on social media and elsewhere have consequences, and risk triggering those who already have histories of violence, and I would suspect histories of holding authoritarian attitudes. In the case of the latter, authoritarian aggression is the real concern. Authoritarians who believe that their legitimate authority figures consider targeting a minority group for violence is acceptable are at risk to follow through, and at bare minimum are at risk to approve such behavior. <br /></p>James Benjaminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05696057339996056906noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9164612039394546240.post-29631686236521091032022-08-06T00:14:00.001-07:002022-08-06T00:14:38.060-07:00The struggle continues: Zheng and Zhang (2016) Pt. 4<p>Let's focus on Study 1 of Zheng and Zhang (2016). It should have been fairly simple, at least in terms of data reporting. However it happened, the authors honed into two video games that they thought were equivalent in terms of any confound aside from violent content, and merely needed to run a pilot study to demonstrate that they could back that up with solid evidence. It should have been a slam-dunk.</p><p>Not so fast.</p><p>The good news is that, unlike Study 2, the analyses of the age data are actually mathematically plausible. That's swell. I noticed that the authors had some Likert-style questions to rate the games on a variety of dimensions, which makes sense. The scaling was reported to be on a 1 to 5 scale, in which 1 meant very low and 5 meant very high for each dimension. My intention was to focus on Tables 1 and 2. If a 1 to 5 Likert scale was used for each of the items used to rate the games, there were some problems. One glaring problem is that there is no way that there could be means above 5. And yet, for Violent Content and Violent Images dimensions, the mean was definitely above 5 in each case. That does not compute. I have no idea what scaling was used on the questionnaires actually used. I can perhaps assume a 1 to 7 Likert scale. Certainly doing so would make some means and standard deviations that seemed mathematically impossible seem at least with in the realm of plausibility. But there is no way to know. We do not have the data. We do not have any of the materials and protocols. We have to take everything on faith. I had intended to have a set of images of SPRITE analyses on Table 1 and Table 2, but didn't see the point. </p><p>Then we have the usual problem with degrees of freedom. With a 2x2 mixed ANOVA, with game type as a repeated measure and "gender" as a between-subjects factor, the degrees of freedom would not have deviated much from the sample size of 220. I think we can all agree with that. Degrees of freedom below 100 would be impossible. And yet the analyses reported do just that. It does not help much that Table 1 is mislabeled as t-test results. If we assumed paired sample t-tests, degrees of freedom for each item would have been 219. Again, the reported degrees of freedom do not compute.</p><p>What I can say with some certainty is that Zheng and Zhang (2016) should not be included in any meta-analysis addressing violent video games and aggression or media violence and aggression. My efforts to address some of these issues with the editorial staff never went very far. It's so funny how problems with a published paper lead editorial staff to go on vacation. I get it. I'd rather be out of town and away from email contact when someone emails (with evidence) concerns about a published paper. Unfortunately, if the data and analyses cannot be trusted, we have a problem. This is precisely the sort of paper that, once published, ends up included in meta-analyses. Meta-analysts who would rather exclude findings that are, at best, questionable will be pressured to include such papers anyway. How much that biases the overall findings is clearly a concern. And yet the attitude seems to be to let it go. The attitude is that the status quo is sufficient. One flawed study surely could not hurt that much? We simply don't know. The same lab persisted, with samples of over 3,000, to publish research relevant to media violence researchers. Several of those papers ended up retracted. Others probably should have been, but probably won't due to whatever political reasons one might imagine. </p><p>All I can say is the truth is there. I've tried to lay it out. If someone wants to run with it and help make our science a bit better, I welcome you and your efforts. <br /></p>James Benjaminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05696057339996056906noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9164612039394546240.post-31469488066739194412022-07-31T21:06:00.003-07:002022-07-31T21:06:31.356-07:00The NeverEnding Story: Zheng and Zhang (2016) Pt. 3<p>Whenever I have a few seconds of spare time and feel like torturing myself, I go back to reading a paper I have blogged about previously (see <a href="https://ajbenjaminjrbeta.blogspot.com/2019/04/a-reminder-that-peer-review-is-very.html" target="_blank">here</a> and <a href="https://ajbenjaminjrbeta.blogspot.com/2019/10/its-beginning-to-and-back-again-zheng.html" target="_blank">here</a>). Each reading reveals more errors, and my remarks over the previous blog posts reflect that. Initially I thought Study 1 was probably okay or less problematic than Study 2. However, Study 1 is every bit as problematic as Study 2. I think I was so overwhelmed by the insane amount of errors in Study 2 that I had no energy left to devote to Study 1. And I do want to circle around to Study 1. But first, I want to add one more remark to Study 2.</p><p>With regard to Study 2, I focused on the very odd reporting of degrees of freedom (df) for each statistical analysis, given that the experiment had 240 participants. I showed that if we were to believe those df to be correct (hint: we shouldn't), there were several decision errors. And to top it off, the authors try to write off what appears to be a statistically significant 3-way interaction as non-significant. That would still be the case even if the appropriate df were reported. The so-called main effect of violent video games on reaction time to aggressive versus non-aggressive goal words was inadequate. As noted before, not only were the df undoubtedly wrong, but the analysis does not compare the difference in reaction times between the treatment and control conditions. I would have expected either a 2x2 ANOVA demonstrating the interaction or the authors to compute the differences (in milliseconds) between aggressive and non-aggressive goal words for both the treatment and control groups, and then to compute the appropriate one-way ANOVA or t-test. Anderson et al (1998) took this latter approach and were quite successful. At least the authors offered means for that main analysis. In subsequent analyses, the authors quickly dispense with reporting means at all. In no case do the authors report standard deviations. That's the capsule summary of my critique up to this point. Now to add the proverbial cherry on top: the one time that the authors do report the mean and standard deviation together was when reporting the age of the participants, and even then the authors manage to make a mess of things. </p><p>Recall that the authors had a sample of 240 children ranging in age from 9 to 12 years for Study 2. The mean age for the participants was 11.66 with a standard deviation of 1.23. Since age can be treated as integer data, I used a post-peer-review tool called <a href="https://steamtraen.shinyapps.io/rsprite/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">SPRITE</a> to make sure that the mean age and standard deviation were mathematically possible. To do so, I entered the range of possible ages (as provided by the authors), the target mean and standard deviation, and the maximum number of distributions to generate. To my chagrin, I got an error message. Specifically, I was informed by SPRITE that the target standard deviation I had provided, based on what the authors reported, was too large. The largest mathematically plausible standard deviation was 1.17. Even something as elementary as the mean and standard deviation of participants' age gets messed up. You can try SPRITE for yourself and determine if what I am finding is correct. My guess is you will. Below is the result I obtained. I prefer to show my work.<br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhS5gqOCpM-EQChRZL6Re50o6H5ev9TceBHM0MwXi5xgoXr1CYN5FbtkQq7jVt5HI68dFo8BA-Jt_9LDZp5VTmyQkpPsLGoGNY5YCk2d8m8-cKf7ew6k0ejST35QQ9jd46PLTMZzx1t9pJTinhoYLixIC4ua3piJc495pMSNM4b8sQOm-_NDZoe0TBQRA/s1197/zhengzhang%20mean%20age.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="591" data-original-width="1197" height="198" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhS5gqOCpM-EQChRZL6Re50o6H5ev9TceBHM0MwXi5xgoXr1CYN5FbtkQq7jVt5HI68dFo8BA-Jt_9LDZp5VTmyQkpPsLGoGNY5YCk2d8m8-cKf7ew6k0ejST35QQ9jd46PLTMZzx1t9pJTinhoYLixIC4ua3piJc495pMSNM4b8sQOm-_NDZoe0TBQRA/w400-h198/zhengzhang%20mean%20age.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p>
<br /><br />
So Study 2 is not to be trusted at all. What about Study 1? It's a mess for its own reasons. I'll circle back to that in a future post.James Benjaminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05696057339996056906noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9164612039394546240.post-29461505789299362982022-07-29T22:31:00.000-07:002022-07-29T22:31:14.080-07:00A Blast From the Past: Retractions and Meta-Analysis Edition<p>I stumbled across this article, <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/pdf/10.1126/science.371.6531.767" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Media and aggression research retracted under scrutiny</a>, and found it to be an interesting short read. The article's author chronicles some recent retractions, and what had been another on-going investigation of several papers coauthored by <a href="https://ajbenjaminjrbeta.blogspot.com/search/label/Qian%20Zhang" target="_blank">Qian Zhang</a> of Southwest University. I've written enough about his work over the last few years. I think referring to many of Zhang's papers having "been called into question" is a fair assessment. </p><p>Part of the story chronicles Samuel West, who included one of Zhang's papers in his meta-analysis at the request of a reviewer. His meta-analysis would undergo another round of peer review around the time he learned of that particular Zhang paper being under investigation at the same journal. Ouch. West certainly has legitimate concerns about including a potentially dodgy finding in his meta-analysis. In this case, the paper by Zhang and colleagues was not retracted, but I am sure West has his misgivings about including the paper in his database in the first place. I can certainly empathize. My most recent published meta-analysis included one of Zhang's papers that would eventually get retracted early this year. That said, there are plenty of papers generated from Zhang's lab with obvious problems, or, in the case of his more recent work, have problems that are more cleverly hidden. I agree with Amy Orben that the fact that problematic studies continue to remain in journals and meta-analyses is "a major problem" when we think about how politicized media violence research is. Requiring archiving of data, data analyses, and research protocols probably helps to the extent that it is required - at least anything that might be incorrect or fraudulent can more easily be sniffed out. Otherwise, one can only hope for sleuths with enough time on their hands and no concerns for career repercussions for blowing the whistle on published papers that should have never seen the light of day. Good luck with that.</p><p>I do take issue with Zhang's characterization of Hilgard as someone who is "just trying to make his name based just on claiming that everyone else does bad research." I get that Zhang is a bit sore about the retractions, and Hilgard was the person who contacted Zhang and a plethora of journal editors regarding the papers in question. That said, there was plenty of chatter about Zhang's work in 2018 and onward, and there were probably several of us who just wanted to know that we hadn't gone insane, and that the obvious data errors, including degrees of freedom that were inaccurate, means and standard deviations that were mathematically impossible, and tables that made no sense really were what we thought they were. Hilgard was far and away better connected to the sphere of media violence research as an active researcher himself, and had the data analytic know-how and the connections that come with being at a R-1 university to do what needed to be done. Aside from that, Hilgard made plenty of positive contributions to the methodology side of psychological science, and from interacting with him online and in person over the years, I'll simply say he's a good person to know. </p><p>I think this article is somewhat helpful in pointing out that even those who believe there is a link between violent content in media (such as video games) and aggression can view Zhang's work and see it for what it is, and express an appropriate level of skepticism. At the end of the day, one can take a philosophical perspective that there is "no one right way to look at the data" and that's all well and good. But at the end of the day, if the analyses show decision errors, and the means and standard deviations forming the basis for those analyses are simply mathematically impossible, the only reasonable conclusion that can be made is that the data and analyses in their present form cannot be accepted as valid. </p><p>The only bone I really have to pick is that the author characterizes the body of media violence research as asking the question of whether or not "violent entertainment causes violence". Although I am aware that there are researchers in this area of inquiry who would draw that conclusion, there are plenty of other investigators who view what we can learn based on our available methods much more cautiously (a lot of aggression is mild, after all). There are also plenty of skeptics who doubt that there is any link between media violence and even the mild forms of aggression that we can measure. As far as I am aware, there is no link between exposure to violent content in mass media and violent behavior in everyday life. All that said, this is a useful article that captures a series of events that I know quite intimately. </p><p>Suddenly, I am in the mood for some cartoon violence. I think I'll watch some early episodes of <i>Rick and Morty</i>. Goodnight.<br /></p>James Benjaminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05696057339996056906noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9164612039394546240.post-64734393296775965322022-07-25T13:26:00.003-07:002022-07-25T13:26:45.084-07:00The 50th anniversary of the article that brought an end to the Tuskegee Syphilis Study<p><a href="https://apnews.com/article/tuskegee-study-experiment-syphilis-7743bd8c7d51fe0ef9a855b4bec69b1f" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Here's an article I strongly recommend reading</a>. The study itself is something I and my colleagues in my department discuss in our methods courses as an example of flagrantly unethical research. Although not a psychology study by any stretch, it is a cautionary tale of the abuses that have occurred (and can potentially occur) that exploit marginalized people. <br /></p>James Benjaminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05696057339996056906noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9164612039394546240.post-22640640564333082622022-07-22T13:06:00.000-07:002022-07-22T13:06:01.723-07:00Food for thought<p> Read <a href="https://joshuadolezal.substack.com/p/academe-is-suffering-from-foreign" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Academe is is suffering from foreign occupiers: Lessons from Vaclev Havel for a profession in decline</a>. In this case the problem is one of how the academy is run, which is very much top-down, with an emphasis on branding trumping pretty much everything else. In some senses, it is reminiscent of existence in the Warsaw Pact version of Eastern Europe, as this author sees it. And we are suffering a brain drain in faculty and students as a consequence.<br /></p>James Benjaminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05696057339996056906noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9164612039394546240.post-18919019418865467632022-02-04T21:06:00.002-08:002022-08-04T22:29:35.776-07:00A long-overdue retraction<p>After sounding the alarm bells several years ago, a paper that I had failed to get retracted (the editor of PAID at the time offered a superficially "better" Corrigendum in 2019 instead) is now <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.paid.2015.09.017" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">officially retracted</a>. Dr. Joe Hilgard really put the work in to make it happen. Here is his story:</p><p></p><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">At long last, Personality and Individual Differences has retracted this paper by Qian Zhang and colleagues.<br /><br />Let me tell you about the reasons and how long the process took... <a href="https://t.co/WdFyDMBMAR">https://t.co/WdFyDMBMAR</a></p>— Joe Hilgard, data guy, thanks you for reading. (@JoeHilgard) <a href="https://twitter.com/JoeHilgard/status/1489233231090229249?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 3, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async="" charset="utf-8" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
<p></p>The saga of this weapons priming article is over. There are plenty of articles remaining that have yet to be adequately scrutinized. <br /><p></p>James Benjaminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05696057339996056906noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9164612039394546240.post-14641311036692413862021-11-07T21:51:00.000-08:002021-11-07T21:51:08.280-08:00The interaction of mere exposure to weapons and provocation: A preliminary p-curve analysis<p>The primary hypothesis of interest in Berkowitz and LePage (1967) was an interaction of exposure to weapons (rifles vs. badminton racquets/no stimuli) and provocation (high vs low) on aggression (which was measured in terms of number electric shocks participants believed they were giving to the person who had just given them feedback. The authors predicted that the interaction would be statistically significant and would find that those participants who had been highly provoked and had short-term exposure to rifles would show by far the highest level of aggression. Their hypothesis was successfully confirmed. However, subsequent efforts to replicate that interaction were rather inconsistent. This space is not the place to repeat that history, as I have discussed it elsewhere on this blog and in recent literature reviews published in the National Social Science Journal (Benjamin 2019) and in an encyclopedic chapter (Benjamin, 2021). In the Benjamin et al. (2018) meta-analysis, we did look very broadly at whether or not the weapons effect appeared stronger in studies in highly provoked conditions than in neutral/low-provoked conditions. There appeared to be a trend, although there were some problems with our approach. We examined all DVs (cognitive, affective, appraisal, and behavioral) rather than just focus on behavioral. That probably inflated the naive effect size for the neutral/low provoking condition and deflated the naive effect size in the high provoking condition. That said, we can note that depending on the method of publication bias analysis used, when correcting for publication bias, there is some reason to doubt that the sort of noticeably strong effect in highly provoking conditions in which weapons were present was particularly robust. </p><p>Another way of testing the robustness of the weapons effect hypothesis as presented by Berkowitz and LePage (1967), which is central to the viability of Weapons Effect Theory (yes, as I have noted, that is a thing), is to use a method called p-curves. This is fairly straightforward to do. All I need is a collection of studies that have a test of an interaction between the mere presence or absence of weapons and some manipulation of provocation as independent variables, and a dependent measure of an aggressive behavioral outcome. There really isn't an overwhelming number of published articles, so the task of finding a collection of published research was fairly simple. I just had to look through my old collection of articles and look to make sure no one had added anything new that would satisfy my criteria. That turned out to not be a problem. </p><p>So to be clear, my inclusion criteria for articles (or studies within articles) were:</p><p>1. manipulation of short-term exposure to weapon (usually weapons vs. neutral objects)</p><p>2. manipulation of provocation (high vs. low/none)</p><p>3. explicit test of interaction of weapon exposure and provocation level</p><p>4. behavioral measure of aggression</p><p>Of the studies I am aware of, that left me with 11 potential studies to examine. Unfortunately, five were excluded for failing to report the necessary 2-way interaction or any simple effects analyses: Buss et al. (1972, Exp. 5), Page and O'Neal (1977), Caprara et al. (1984), Cahoon and Edmonds (1984, 1985). The remaining six were entered into a p-curve disclosure table: Berkowitz and LePage (1967), Fischer et al., (1969), Ellis et al. (1971), Page and Scheidt (1971, Exp. 1), Frodi, (1975), and Leyens and Parke (1975). Once I completed the table, I entered the relevant test statistics, degrees of freedom, and p-values into the <a href="http://www.p-curve.com/app4/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">p-curve app 4.06</a>. Three studies were excluded from the analysis due to the 2-way interaction being non-significant. Of the remaining three studies included, here is the graph:</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6teQXEuvYAs2rARhgtwXztOvA99jxEDp5cPy6eA7IelJjqnsswDqgoyIwtyZfBN95L_Yt6-b1IXwL0lv-aHRbngtmkMgrh0S5Ra-b8e7MfC6TmblcUoo1OMXpnogQaromdFv3ALN94UBY/s2048/1635223606.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1890" data-original-width="2048" height="507" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6teQXEuvYAs2rARhgtwXztOvA99jxEDp5cPy6eA7IelJjqnsswDqgoyIwtyZfBN95L_Yt6-b1IXwL0lv-aHRbngtmkMgrh0S5Ra-b8e7MfC6TmblcUoo1OMXpnogQaromdFv3ALN94UBY/w550-h507/1635223606.png" width="550" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><p>As you might guess, there isn't a lot of diagnostic information to go on. According to the summary that was printed:</p><p></p><blockquote>P-Curve analysis combines the half and full p-curve to make inferences about evidential value. In particular, if the half p-curve test is right-skewed with p<.05 or both the half and full test are right-skewed with p<.1, then p-curve analysis indicates the presence of evidential value. This combination test, introduced in Simonsohn, Simmons and Nelson (2015 <a href="http://p-curve.com/paper/Better%20p-curves%202015%2011%2026.pdf">.pdf</a>) 'Better P-Curves' paper, is much more robust to ambitious p-hacking than the simple full p-curve test is.<br /> <br /> Here neither condition is met; hence p-curve does not indicate evidential value.<br /> <br /> Similarly, p-curve analysis indicates that evidential value is inadequate or absent if the 33% power test is p<.05 for the full p-curve or both the half p-curve and binomial 33% power test are p<.1. Here neither condition is met; so p-curve does not indicate evidential value is inadequate nor absent.</blockquote><p></p><p>From the available evidence, there does not appear to be much to suggest that the Weapons Effect as initially proposed by Berkowitz and LePage (1967) was either replicable or provided adequate evidence to suggest that the effect as first proposed was worth further exploration. There might have been some alternatives worth further exploration (including Ellis et al. (1971) who wanted to explore associations we might make via operant conditioning). That work seemed to fizzle out. We know what happened next. Around the mid-1970s, researchers interested in this area of inquiry concentrated their efforts to explore the short term effect of weapons only under highly provoking condition (with a few exceptions in field research) and took the original finding as gospel. By 1990, the Carlson et al. (1990) meta-analysis seemed to make it official, and research shifted to cognitive priming effects. I will try a p-curve analysis on that line of weapons effect research next, as the cognitive route appears to be the primary mechanism for a behavioral effect to occur.<br /> <br /><br /><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 18.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"></span><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:DocumentProperties>
<o:Version>16.00</o:Version>
</o:DocumentProperties>
<o:OfficeDocumentSettings>
<o:AllowPNG/>
</o:OfficeDocumentSettings>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:WordDocument>
<w:View>Normal</w:View>
<w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom>
<w:TrackMoves/>
<w:TrackFormatting/>
<w:PunctuationKerning/>
<w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/>
<w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>
<w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent>
<w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>
<w:DoNotPromoteQF/>
<w:LidThemeOther>EN-US</w:LidThemeOther>
<w:LidThemeAsian>X-NONE</w:LidThemeAsian>
<w:LidThemeComplexScript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript>
<w:Compatibility>
<w:BreakWrappedTables/>
<w:SnapToGridInCell/>
<w:WrapTextWithPunct/>
<w:UseAsianBreakRules/>
<w:DontGrowAutofit/>
<w:SplitPgBreakAndParaMark/>
<w:EnableOpenTypeKerning/>
<w:DontFlipMirrorIndents/>
<w:OverrideTableStyleHps/>
</w:Compatibility>
<m:mathPr>
<m:mathFont m:val="Cambria Math"/>
<m:brkBin m:val="before"/>
<m:brkBinSub m:val="--"/>
<m:smallFrac m:val="off"/>
<m:dispDef/>
<m:lMargin m:val="0"/>
<m:rMargin m:val="0"/>
<m:defJc m:val="centerGroup"/>
<m:wrapIndent m:val="1440"/>
<m:intLim m:val="subSup"/>
<m:naryLim m:val="undOvr"/>
</m:mathPr></w:WordDocument>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:LatentStyles DefLockedState="false" DefUnhideWhenUsed="false"
DefSemiHidden="false" DefQFormat="false" DefPriority="99"
LatentStyleCount="371">
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="0" QFormat="true" Name="Normal"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="heading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="heading 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="heading 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="heading 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="heading 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="heading 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="heading 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="heading 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="index 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="index 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="index 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="index 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="index 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="index 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="index 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="index 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="index 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="toc 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="toc 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="toc 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="toc 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="toc 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="toc 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="toc 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="toc 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="toc 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="footnote text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="header"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="footer"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="index heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="35" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="caption"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="table of figures"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="envelope address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="envelope return"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="footnote reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="line number"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="page number"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="endnote reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="endnote text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="table of authorities"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="macro"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="toa heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Closing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Default Paragraph Font"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Message Header"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Salutation"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Date"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Block Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Hyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="FollowedHyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Document Map"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Plain Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="E-mail Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Top of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Bottom of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal (Web)"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Acronym"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Cite"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Code"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Definition"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Keyboard"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Sample"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Typewriter"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Variable"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Table"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation subject"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="No List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Contemporary"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Elegant"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Professional"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Balloon Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Theme"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="List Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="List Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="List Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 6"/>
</w:LatentStyles>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]>
<style>
/* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable
{mso-style-name:"Table Normal";
mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
mso-style-priority:99;
mso-style-parent:"";
mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;
mso-para-margin-top:0in;
mso-para-margin-right:0in;
mso-para-margin-bottom:8.0pt;
mso-para-margin-left:0in;
line-height:107%;
mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
font-size:11.0pt;
font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;
mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;
mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;
mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;}
</style>
<![endif]--></p>James Benjaminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05696057339996056906noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9164612039394546240.post-1027956636330008672021-11-06T20:34:00.003-07:002021-11-06T20:34:56.828-07:00An interesting take on the 2021 Virginia Gubernatorial election<p>The Virginia Gubernatorial election was a predictably close one, and one that led to a GOP candidate winning this particular off-year election. I suppose there are any of a number of takes to be had. One factor that had my attention was the GOP candidate's (Youngkin) focus on <a href="https://www.edweek.org/leadership/what-is-critical-race-theory-and-why-is-it-under-attack/2021/05" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Critical Race Theory</a> (CRT) which is probably part of the curriculum in the context of advanced coursework in Legal Studies, but not a factor in the K-12 system. Youngkin made it a point to advocate for parents having "more of a say" in their kids' education, in the context of the moral panic over CRT that has developed over the past year. Did Youngkin's strategy work? The answer turns out to be complicated. Those who enjoy poring over the cross-tabs in public opinion polls found that it succeeded, <a href="https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2021/11/polls-critical-race-theory-virginia-election.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">but not in the way that it has been spun in the media</a>:</p><p><br /></p><blockquote><p>The network exit poll, released on Nov. 2, showed the same pattern. Youngkin got<a href="https://www.cnn.com/election/2021/november/exit-polls/virginia/governor"> 62 percent of the white vote</a> and 13 percent of the Black vote, a gap of 49 points. But among voters who said parents should have a lot of “say in what schools teach”—about half the electorate—he got<a href="https://www.cnn.com/election/2021/november/exit-polls/virginia/governor/5"> 90 percent of the white vote</a> and only<a href="https://www.cnn.com/election/2021/november/exit-polls/virginia/governor/6"> 19 percent of the Black vote</a>, a gap of 71 points. The idea that parents should have more say in the curriculum—Youngkin’s central message—had become racially loaded. And the loading was specific to race: Other demographic gaps for which data were reported in the exit poll—between men and women, and between white college graduates and whites who hadn’t graduated from college—get smaller, not bigger, when you narrow your focus from the entire sample to the subset of voters who said parents should have a lot of say in what schools taught. Only the racial gap increases.</p><p>The exit poll didn’t ask voters about CRT, but it did ask about confederate monuments on government property. Sixty percent of white voters said the monuments should be left in place, not removed, and 87 percent of those voters went to Youngkin. That was 25 points higher than his overall share of white voters. The election had become demonstrably polarized, not just by race but by attitudes toward the history of racism. All the evidence indicates that Youngkin’s attacks on CRT played a role in this polarization. </p></blockquote><p></p><p>So, in a way, the strategy of honing in on this latest moral panic did work in gaining the favor of white voters, but that's it. As a newer Southern Strategy tactic, focusing on CRT, demonizing it, and tying it (inaccurately) to the public school systems is considerably more sophisticated than earlier efforts. The end result appears to be to further sow divisions among white voters, and between subsets of white voters and the rest of the voting population, in order to maintain hegemony. As a strategy, it may just work to an extent. School boards and more localized policymakers are ill-prepared for what awaits them in the upcoming months and years. <br /></p>James Benjaminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05696057339996056906noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9164612039394546240.post-52284571561919343922021-10-22T00:01:00.003-07:002021-10-22T00:01:53.138-07:00Back to Weapons Effect Theory<p>I spent a bit of time over the week looking at p-curve analyses for the handful of articles that not only predicted an interaction of provocation level and brief exposure to weapons and weapon images (starting with Berkowitz & LePage, 1967), and preliminary evidence is not promising. Berkowitz and LePage (1967) predicted an interaction effect.They appeared to find on. Some subsequent authors attempted to test the same effect. Some were fairly good at reporting the specific test statistics necessary to be included in a p-curve analysis. Others failed miserably. Of those who did make explicit reports, some found a significant interaction that was consistent with Berkowitz and LePage (1967). Others, found effects that were null or opposite. Given the dearth of reports that faithfully attempted to replicate Berkowitz & LePage, (1967), I am not sure how much to read into things. Overall, I am getting the impression that there was just not much to write home about. At some point, I will re-rerun the analysis and download what I can and get screen shots of the rest. The bottom line is that the interaction, to the extent it was reported during the 1970s was far from robust, and an argument can be made that those who simply began to concentrate only on experimental research in which only high frustration or provocation was measured had put the proverbial cart before the horse. I understand, up to a point. In the Berkowitz and LePage (1967) experiment, only the cell in which participants were highly provoked and exposed briefly to firearms showed a higher level of aggression. Why other researchers found suppression effects under the same conditions, no effect, or simply neglected to report the necessary test statistics for that interaction effect is a story that I cannot adequately offer commentary about. What I can say is that the findings were messy and that more rigorous replications made sense. I'll give Buss et al (1972) points for an effort, even if they were a bit oblique in reporting faithfully the actual F-tests. Keep in mind that p-curve analyses only consider those studies where a significant effect is found. So if those come up short? Reader beware.<br /></p>James Benjaminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05696057339996056906noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9164612039394546240.post-47033328360060502562021-10-05T21:36:00.004-07:002021-10-05T21:36:28.048-07:00Converting Standard Error to Standard Deviation<p>This is just one of my brief posts that I hope is obvious to most folks who would bother to read this blog. It's just a technique that is part of my meta-analyst's toolbox, can be calculated on the back of a napkin, and comes in handy when authors report means and standard error instead of the usual standard deviation term we would want to estimate Cohen's <i>d</i>. The formula is simple.</p><p><img alt="" border="0" height="20" src="https://handbook-5-1.cochrane.org/chapter_7/image012.gif" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; border: none; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 13.3333px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: center; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;" width="85" /></p><p>I've used it a bit more often than I would have imagined. It comes in handy. One common mistake meta-analysts can make is to erroneously use the SE term instead of SD in the denominator to compute Cohen's <i>d</i>, which would inflate the effect size for the hypothesis test in question. Needless to say, you want to avoid that. <br /></p><p>Credit to <a href="https://handbook-5-1.cochrane.org/chapter_7/7_7_3_2_obtaining_standard_deviations_from_standard_errors_and.htm" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews of Interventions</a>. <br /></p>James Benjaminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05696057339996056906noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9164612039394546240.post-33945808723779034482021-10-04T23:00:00.008-07:002021-10-06T21:50:55.749-07:00A grim day for another weapons effect paper<p>Sometimes a specific lab becomes the gift that keeps on giving. If the work is good, we are the better for it. If the work is questionable, our science becomes less trustworthy not only to the public, but to those of us who serve as educators and fellow researchers. As is true in other facets of life, there are gifts we would really rather return. </p><p>Which brings us to a certain researcher from Southwest University: Qian Zhang. In spite of several recent retractions, I have to give the man credit. He remains prolific. A<a href="https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-771437/v1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"> recent paper</a> was recently uploaded on a preprint server, on a variation of weapons effect research that is quite well known to me. The author was even kind enough to upload the data and the analyses at <a href=" https://osf.io/vfstz/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">osf.io,</a> which is to be commended. </p><p>That said, there are clearly some concerns with this paper. I will only discuss a few in this post. My hope is that others who are far more facile at error detection and have enough fluency in Mandarin can pick up where I will likely leave off. The basic premise of the paper is to examine if playing with weapon toys will lead children to show more accessibility of aggressive cognition (or think more aggressively, if that is easier on the eyes and tongue) and show higher levels of aggression on the Competitive Reaction Time Task (CRTT). As an aside, I seem to have some difficulty with the acronym, CRTT, and often misspell it when I tweet about the task. But I digress. These sorts of experiments have been run primarily in North America (specifically, the US) and Europe, and not so much outside of those limited geographical regions. Research of this sort outside of the US and Europe could be potentially useful if done well. Usually, experiments of this sort are done to examine only behavioral outcomes (Mendoza's 1972 dissertation is arguably an exception, if we code the variation of a TAT as a cognitive measure), so the idea of also examining cognitive outcomes could be potentially beneficial. </p><p>As I read through the paper, I noticed that there were 104 participants in total. The author contends that he used an a priori power test to determine sample size at 95% power, using G-Power 3.1. That caught my attention. I dusted off my meta-analysis (Benjamin et al., 2018) and looked at effect size estimates for various distributions that we were interested in examining at the time. One of those distributions specifically included studies in which toy weapons were used as primes. The naive effect size is not exactly overwhelming: <i>d</i> = 0.32. That is arguably a generous estimate, once we include various techniques for measuring the impact of publication bias, and a good-faith argument can easily be made that the true effect size for this particular type of prime is close to negligible. But let's ignore that detail for a minute. Let's pretend we exist in a universe in which the naive effect size of <i>d</i> = 0.32 is correct. The authors argue that an N of 52 would suffice, but that their "sample size of (N=102 [sic])" was more than sufficient to meet 95% power. If you ever run any study in G-Power, you have to choose your analysis, enter the info required, and you are given a sample size estimate. One complication with G-Power is that it never directly allows us to enter an effect size for Cohen's <i>d</i>. It does give us Cohen's <i>F</i>. Computing Cohen's <i>d</i> from Cohen's <i>F</i> is quite easy: <i>d</i> = 2*<i>F</i>, and <i>F</i> = <i>d</i>/2. So, if I know that the effect size for my research question of interest is <i>d</i> = 0.32, I divide by 2 and can plug that into G-Power for Cohen's <i>F</i>, and then make sure I have my other info correct, including number of conditions, covariates, etc. When I do all that, based on the experiment as described, with a Cohen's <i>F</i> of 0.16, it becomes clear that the experiment would require a sample of at least 510 students. Now let's say that the author merely made a mistake and plugged in the number for Cohen's d by accident. The sample would still have to be about 129 in order to meet the requirements of 95% power, and really given the intention to randomly divide an equal number of males and females into treatment and control conditions, the author should shoot for 132 students. In order for the argument of 95% power to be met in this study, we'd have to assume a Cohen's <i>d</i> of approximately 1.00. There may be individual studies in the literature that would yield such a Cohen's <i>d</i>, but of the available sample of studies? Not so much. So, we have another low power experiment in the research literature. It's hardly the end of the world. </p><p>What grabbed my attention was the research protocols described in the experiment. For the time being, I will take the author at his word that this was an experiment in which random assignment was involved (<a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ab.21946" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">this author has once been flagged for failing to disclose that participants chose which treatment condition they were involved in</a>, which was, shall we say, a wee bit embarrassing). The way the treatment and control conditions are described seems standard enough. What was odd was what happened after the play session ended. The children were first given a semantic classification task. I admit that I've had to do a double take on this, as some of the wording is a bit off. I am increasingly thinking that what the authors did was use a series of aggressive and neutral pictures and had children respond to them as quickly as they could. The author had made some mention of aggressive and neutral pictures also being used as cues, which threw me, because that would have seemed more like an experiment within an experiment. At minimum, there would have been needless contamination. Then the children participated in a CRTT where they set noise blasts at 70 to 100 db. Those controls were set from 0 (no noise) to 4 (100 db). The authors reported their means and standard deviations. I then initially looked at the means for treatment and control condition using <a href="http://www.prepubmed.org/grim_test/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">GRIM</a>, which is a nifty online tool for flagging errors. The results were, to say the least, initially looked grim. However, I was reminded that there is the issue of granularity that I might have overlooked. So, even though there is one scale, the trials each count as independent items. So, an N=26 for one cell is, with the 13 out of 25 trials that the author included in the data set (in which participants had an opportunity to send noise blasts after a loss), effectively an N=338. So I went and opened up the SPRITE test link and entered the same mean info, along with the minimum and maximum scale values (0 and 4, respectively), the target mean for each cell I was interested in, and <a href="https://steamtraen.shinyapps.io/rsprite/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">SPRITE</a> would report that each of the two cells measuring boys failed to arrive at a solution for at minimum the standard deviation. In each case, the standard deviation was reported by SPRITE to be too low. I can get reproductions of possible distributions for the other two cells. I then downloaded the data set to see what it looked like. Much of it is in Mandarin, but I can make some educated guesses about the data in each column. I turned my attention to the "ANCOVA" analysis. It actually looked like a MANOVA was run. Perhaps a MANCOVA (but as I am admittedly not literate in Mandarin, it's hard to really know without taking time I don't have yet to put some terms into Google Translate and sort that all out). That's a project for later in the month. I could see the overall mean for the aggressive behavioral outcome, as measured by the CRTT and entered it, its standard deviation, and overall N in SPRITE and noticed it also could generate some potential score distributions. Still, given the failure to generate some potential distributions in SPRITE, it's not a good day to have posted a preprint. At minimum, there is some sort of error in reporting, whatever the cause.<br /></p><p>I do need to take some time to sit down, try to reproduce the analyses, etc. Of course, it goes without saying that successfully reproducing a data set that has been in some way fabricated is going to add no new information. That said, I am satisfied that the findings as presented for the CRTT analyses intended to establish that weapon toys could (at least most specifically for the male subsample) influence aggressive behavioral outcomes may also be potentially questionable. This is a paper that should not make it past peer review in its present form. </p><p>Note that I have not yet run this through Statcheck, although in recent years Zhang's lab has become more savvy about avoiding obvious decision errors. I made an effort as of this writing to run the analyses as they appeared in the pdf, and the report came back with nothing to be analyzed. I will likely have to enter the analyses by hand on a word document and then reupload at a later date. </p><p>Please also note that the author appears not to have counterbalanced the SCT and CRTT measures to control for order effects. That strikes me as odd. The very superficial discussion about debriefing left me with a few questions as well. </p><p>Note: Updated to reflect some more refined analyses. Any initial mistakes with GRIM are my own. I am on solid ground with the SPRITE runs, and I think my own concerns about the lack of statistical power, failure to counterbalance, etc. are on solid ground.<br /></p>James Benjaminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05696057339996056906noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9164612039394546240.post-9126794840536626332021-09-28T20:16:00.002-07:002021-09-28T20:16:33.598-07:00One of my pet peeves when it comes to cognitive priming tasks in aggression<p>I'm probably going to come across as the late Andy Rooney for a moment. You know what I hate? Some of the apparent flexibility in how cognitive priming tasks get measured in my specialty area: aggression. I've spent some time with these sorts of tasks during my days as a doctoral student in Mizzou's aggression lab in late 1990s. The idea is fairly simple. We prime participants (typical traditional first-year college students) with stimuli that are either thought to be aggression-inducing stimuli (e.g., violent content in video games, images of weapons, violent lyrical content, etc.) or neutral stimuli (e.g., non-violent content in video games, images of non-weapons such as flowers, nonviolent lyrical content, etc.), and then get reaction times to aggressive and non-aggressive words. I'm probably most familiar with the pronunciation task, in which participants see, for example, an image for a few seconds (weapon or neutral object), followed by a target word that participants read aloud into a microphone, and the latency is recorded in milliseconds. The lexical decision task is similar, except in addition to reacting to aggressive or neutral words, the participants also must decide on whether or not what they are seeing is a word or non-word. At the end of the day, we get reaction time data, and look for latency measured in milliseconds.</p><p>For a prime to work, we expect that the relative latency for aggressive words will be lower than for neutral words in the treatment condition when compared to the relative latency for aggressive versus neutral words in the control condition. That's the pattern we found in both experiments in Anderson et al. (1998) and Lindsay and Anderson (2000), for example. The difference in latency between aggressive words and non-aggressive words was significantly larger, and in the predicted direction, in the weapon condition than was the case between aggressive words and non-aggressive words in the neutral prime condition. We could conclude that weapons appeared to prime the relative accessibility of aggressive cognition, or we could say aggression-related schemata or whatever nomenclature you might prefer. </p><p>The way I was trained, and the literature I tended to read worked largely the way I just described, regardless the stimuli used for primes and regardless of the target words or concepts the experimenters were attempting to prime. In our case, comparing the relative difference in reaction time latencies between responses to aggressive and non-aggressive words gave us a basis for comparison across treatment condition, and took into account some of the noise we would likely get in the data, such as individual differences in reaction time speed. </p><p>Lately I have seen in my corner of the research universe papers published in which the authors only publish reaction time latencies for aggressive words, even though they admit in their published reports that they did have reaction time data for non-aggressive words. They appear to be getting statistically significant findings, but I find my self asking myself a question: so you find that participants respond faster to aggressive words in the treatment condition than in the control condition. That's nice, but what do those reaction time findings for aggressive words alone really tell us about the priming of the relative accessibility of aggressive cognition? In more lay terms, you say you found participants respond faster to aggressive words, but compared to what? I have also seen the occasional paper slip through in which the authors attempt to have it both ways. They'll use raw aggressive word reaction times as their basis for establishing that there is a priming effect, but their other hypothesis tests actually do use what I see as a proper difference score between aggressive and non-aggressive words. Oddly enough, in one presumably soon-to-be retracted number, when the authors use the approach I was taught, the effect size for the treatment condition becomes negligible, and the authors have to rely on subsample analyses in order to make some statement about the treatment condition actually priming the relative accessibility of aggressive cognition. Now, when I see subsequent research where only the reaction times for aggressive words are reported, I wonder if what I am reading is to be trusted, or if something is being hidden from those of us relying on the accuracy of those reports. </p><p>That is the sort of thing that can keep me awake at night. <br /></p>James Benjaminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05696057339996056906noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9164612039394546240.post-12697397756977037202021-09-21T13:30:00.003-07:002021-09-21T13:30:43.602-07:00The jamovi MAJOR module<p>I've been switching over most of my data analyses to jamovi (as a very tentative step toward learning R), as well as switching my instruction to jamovi. Overall, I love the interface, and will probably say more about it later. For now I just want to say a few brief words about the MAJOR module, which is meant to interface with Metafor, which is a meta-analytic package for R. MAJOR is very intuitive, and I've found it relatively easy so far to reproduce basic analyses from distributions from prior meta-analysis I've worked on. It produces helpful forest plots and funnel plots. It meets my basic needs. When it comes to publication bias, I wish there were more options available. As of now, MAJOR offers Fail-safe N (and my advice has been that friends do not let friends use Fail-safe N) and Egger's test to detect potential publication bias. I hope the developers of MAJOR plan on adding on more publication bias options, even if just trim-and-fill analyses (fixed and random). That said, meta-analysis has moved way beyond any of the above techniques, and I'd love to see other publication bias techniques included, (PET-PEESE comes to mind). That would be helpful. Otherwise, I am quite happy with what I've been able to do so far. Kudos to the developers of MAJOR for what they have done so far. <br /></p>James Benjaminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05696057339996056906noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9164612039394546240.post-70767208147638480002021-08-13T23:50:00.001-07:002021-08-13T23:50:17.129-07:00It's been quite a week<p>On August 6th, Tom Mars' temporary injunction against State Act 1002 of 2021 was a tentative success. The parents who sued the state with his representation were able to convince a judge to order a temporary injunction against the law, thus preventing its enactment for the time being. The law would have prevented local and state run agencies and governments from enforcing mask mandates. The law was signed by our Governor, Asa Hutchinson, last May. It seemed like the legislature and the Governor spiked the proverbial football at the time. Cases of COVID-19 had gone down and would continue to go down for a few more weeks. I thought the law was stupid at the time. It coincided with other laws which restricted any of my state's Governors from enacting common-sense state of emergency mandates. The optics of the Governor actually signing State Act 1002 of 2021 would look bad no matter what. Given the spike in cases that has led to a record number of children in ICUs and ventilators during yet another wave of COVID-19 cases, the whole thing smells of hubris. </p><p>There was no good news or relief for those few school districts that had started school right around the end of July or the start of August. But once the temporary injunction was filed, the dominoes started to fall. A number of school districts across the state, including some that are considered to be "conservative" (whatever that might mean anymore) enacted mask mandates. My city's school district was one of those. University systems across the state enacted mask mandates over the course of this week. I think the city of Little Rock mandated masks on public indoor property. Private corporations with footprints in my state have not only enacted mask mandates of their own, but required their employees to show evidence of vaccination as a condition of employment. A standard of conservative governance in the past had been that policy decisions that had been mandated by Federal or state officials should be handed off to localities and private enterprise. Something has changed in the last few years. The conservative orthodoxy that I understood and even respected, albeit grudgingly, has been supplanted with something different. When it comes to public health and safety, apparently now the new orthodoxy is that the state can actively prevent local governments and state agencies, as well as private sector businesses from doing what is necessary to protect their employees, customers, etc. </p><p>I have no doubt that our current state's Attorney General (Leslie Rutledge) will appeal the injunction against Act 1002. After all, she does have some political aspirations, including a run for the office of Governor. I am actually surprised she has waited as long as she has. I am no legal eagle, but based on how I understood the temporary injunction ruling, assuming the state's Supreme Court is even remotely functional, the law is dead in the water. We'll wait and see. Localities not wanting blood on their hands are not waiting. Nor are those in the private sector, even as our legislature plots to treat the corporations that employ the vast majority of our residents as ones that are only able to act under the whims of a command economy. We're not late-period USSR, or at least we should not be.</p><p>From what I've seen with parents on FB groups is that they're voting with their feet if they have the luxury of doing so (usually those with some financial means, which results in those who are relatively upper middle class). School districts that seem to be promoting health and safety my see an increase in students, and an increase to their funding. Colleges and universities that demonstrate a willingness to act in the interest of the health and well-being of their students will hopefully be rewarded for their efforts, regardless of how this current legal battle plays out. At least students and where relevant their parents will recall the systems who were willing to stand and be counted. </p><p>In the meantime, we're recording consistently around 3k COVID-19 cases per day in my state, and the hospitalization rate and ventilator rate are both off the charts. Our vaccination rates have started to bump up a bit. I honestly don't know how much of that is due to the proverbial "fear of God" being put into some very reluctant folks given our current dire situation, and how much of that is due to private corporations and business just outright mandating vaccinations. </p><p>Regardless, I am hoping that one of the lessons we learn from this debacle is that politicizing any efforts to mitigate a pandemic is simply an awful idea and should be avoided at all costs. <br /></p>James Benjaminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05696057339996056906noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9164612039394546240.post-85522702876212364722021-08-13T00:51:00.003-07:002021-08-13T00:51:39.435-07:00We got lucky, for now<p>Early last week, a lawyer, Tom Mars, filed a lawsuit in a state court to seek at least a temporary injunction against the Arkansas state legislature's efforts to forbid local state agencies (such as school boards) from independently mandating masks or facial coverings as a means of mitigating the spread of the Delta variant of COVID-19. The temporary injunction succeeded. I had expected our state's Attorney General to mount an immediate appeal to the state's Supreme Court. So far, that has not been forthcoming. I am under the impression that the Governor has sought outside legal counsel in order to make the next move. If the external counsel is smart, the state-level leaders (if we can call them that) have been informed that the nature of the temporary injunction is one that suggests that the Tom Mars suit will succeed on its merits. We'll have to wait and see.There is reason for optimism.</p><p>Not every state agency will issue a mask mandate, even as this latest wave of the pandemic ravages our state. But many will. My city's school district acted quickly and on Monday mandated masks for all who are faculty, staff or students in situations in which there are two or more people inside a building. This is pretty consistent with what was policy last academic year. That's as good as we could have expected. That mandate will be reviewed in late September. Depending on how things look, the mandate may be extended or it may be allowed to expire. My best guess, based upon projections by our own state health experts, is that we'll still want a mask mandate for yet another 60 days. I was glad to see that most of the state's university systems chose to put mask mandates in place. That was wise, given that I suspect that if the decision was placed in the hands of individual faculty senate bodies, there would have been gridlock, given that faculty themselves are polarized (which I realize is counter-intuitive to the usual narratives concerning faculty ideology).</p><p>The bottom line is that the vast majority of us are getting what we want and need. There are very understandably skittish students and parents (I and my youngest daughter among them) who needed assurances that students once more could have in-person events in as safe an environment as possible. We're probably a silent majority in our state and locality. Faculty and staff get assurances that they and their families will be kept as safe as is possible at the K-12, college, and university levels. For that, I am grateful. Ideally, we'd have some mandate on our university and college campuses regarding COVID-19 vaccination. Suggesting such an action is politically incorrect in this environment. I was never good at following party lines, and that is especially true with our current ruling party in my state. As it stands, our state legislators (at least those from the GOP, which is the majority party), are even trying to interfere in the decisions private businesses can make regarding vaccination mandates for employees, which seems maddening, given how much the GOP once fetishized all things private sector. </p><p>This is just my opinion, and one should take it for what it is. I am convinced that an uncontrolled pandemic is bad for private businesses, for public universities and colleges, and for public schools. Refusing to do even the minimum needed to keep students safe? Parents will look for, and pay for, other options. As someone who relies on private businesses for survival? I will patronize those businesses that do what is necessary to mitigate spread. A restaurant that offers an indoor dining experience in which there is physical distancing and a mask requirement for customers, and where employees are required to be vaccinated? They have my business, regardless the cost. That's a promise. I am sticking with our current medical practitioners largely because the larger system took this pandemic so seriously that all employees from doctors to CNAs have to be vaccinated. Our other system in my area seems to be fairly non-seriousness of the current threat. They've seen the last of us for a while. Part of living in a capitalist society is that we do get some choices, and those businesses and agencies that do due diligence to keep us safe will earn future business. Those who refuse will eventually lose out. States and regions refusing to protect their residents in the name of public safety will lose out. I wish corporations with some footprint in these states would do a better job of educating state legislators (including reminding them that their donations have been based on doing the bidding of these corporations), and that various levels of chambers of commerce would reach out and educate local political officials. I also wish that those same chambers of commerce would make it very clear that those unwilling to protect public heath, and hence protect the interests of the private sector, would be out of a political career as of November 2022. That's quite an ask. I can hope.</p><p>In the meantime, I have some tools now to keep my students and my family safe that I was not expecting even when I last posted. There is reason to hope. We got lucky, or so it appears. An angry group of parents of kids who have as of yet no access to a COVID-19 vaccine, who have immuno-compromized family, etc., we've had some tentative victories. Let's not get complacent. We've learned that our legislature is only willing to follow our system of economics and governance when it is convenient to our state legislature's party line (this should seem very similar to what those operating under the USSR during its period of collapse experienced). "Good" party members benefited for a while as those who were not suffered. Once we devolve to that point, it's no longer clear if there is even a social order. I don't follow party lines of any sort. So here we are. Benefit students. Accept that businesses who rely on public trust (all businesses, as it turns out) have what they need to build trust during what we hope is a once in a century pandemic.This is not rocket science, by any stretch. <br /></p>James Benjaminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05696057339996056906noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9164612039394546240.post-36780977909291275782021-08-03T23:02:00.002-07:002021-08-03T23:02:52.066-07:00A bit of a postscript to the preceding<p>Some other observations: <br /></p><p>There are times when I wish I had more legal expertise. The reason I say that is because I suspect we're not that many student (or faculty and staff) hospitalizations and deaths at institutions that either willingly refuse to mandate vaccines or masks during this particularly virulent phase of the pandemic (with an R0 of about 8 or 9, the Delta variant is already one of the most infectious viruses known to humanity), or whose hands were tied by state legislators and/or governors from someone attempting to file a lawsuit. Whether or not something like that can succeed is another matter, but I would not be surprised if some angry family members seek a legal remedy, under those tragic circumstances. Early on in the pandemic, we were essentially flying blind. At this juncture, we can see very clearly what is coming our way. Someone will be held accountable eventually for preventable risk.</p><p> On the topic of risk, I would expect insurance premiums to go up. Insurers are going to price in risk as long as this pandemic continues, and try to recoup some of their lost profit margins from paying considerable portions of the bills of those who ended up hospitalized with COVID-19. I'm sure colleges and universities have some sort of insurance that they pay to shield them, and those premiums will go up. Smart insurers are going to jack up their rates in areas where vaccination rates are low and infections rates continue to remain high. </p><p>There is stereotype about faculty being practically a hive mind. Those believing that have never been to a faculty committee meeting. I suspect that the divisions regarding how to deal with the pandemic (or simply to refuse to deal with the pandemic) are now very noticeable on college and university campuses. I will only provide an anecdote, but I think it will illustrate what I have in mind. I just rolled off a committee that among other things was tasked with providing some faculty-led guidance on how to find solutions to ease some of the suffering of our students. Although in ordinary years, I would cringe at solutions such as retroactive withdrawals or Pass/Fail options for students to select once they see their grade reports, These last three semesters have been very far from ordinary. Our campus offered those options for students for Spring and Summer 2020. Once the Fall semester was well underway, and it became obvious that a new wave of cases was building up, students approached us to offer these solutions once more. There was a lot of pushback from that committee, and in the end, we'd come up a couple votes shy of what the student leadership was telling us the students needed. Some of that pushback was expected - it amounted to "I walked uphill in the snow in 100 degree heat each way and I did just fine. These students can too." But some that pushback was really ideological and seemed to parrot talking points I've seen on Facebook groups aligned with Trump. I noticed that ideological pattern of pushback emerge on all matters concerning this pandemic as time went on. I'd already decided to roll off that particular committee simply because it was a significant time commitment, and I'd devoted about half of my career at my current university to serving on that committee. The toxicity that has emerged sealed it for me. When it comes to solutions that are pandemic related, this is a committee that might be able to produce half-measures or fail to act at all.* The ideologues are a minority but very vocal, and smart enough to sort out how to use parliamentary procedure to their advantage. All of that is to say that when it comes to things like revisiting mask mandates, if a lawsuit succeeds in my state to strike down a law that prevents our university from doing so, that decision about whether or not to mandate masks indoors will need to be made by senior administration. There is too much division among faculty. It's probably a safe assumption that the same applies among students as well. And it's probably not just my own campus. </p><p>Once basic public health and safety measures got politicized early on during the pandemic, any hope for the public to more or less band together (the usual small groups of outliers notwithstanding) and use some good horse sense went away. Of course that politicization would spill over onto college and university campuses. After all, our campuses are merely microcosms of our own aching society. Regrettably, I can envision an era in which there are going to be sets of faculty on any given campus who simply cannot and will not work together. Whatever goodwill that once existed has vanished. That may be gone for a generation or two.</p><p>My professional opinion as an educator is that many in-person activities from instruction to recreation are potentially safe enough if those who make up the campus community are required to be vaccinated (medical and religious exceptions a given) and wear masks for now, at least indoors and in crowded outdoor environments. That may not quite be the normal we wanted, but it is what we could potentially achieve for the next couple semesters (for those of us on the semester system - folks on the quarter system can sort out their own math). I'd also recommend college and university systems offering generous leave for faculty and staff who either acquire COVID-19 (probably breakthrough cases if fully vaccinated) or must care for family who are infected, and generous absentee policies for students who test positive for COVID-19. We probably need at least retroactive W or Passing grade policies in place for a bit longer, with the understanding that once we are actually post-pandemic, those options are no longer available. Let's just say that one individual decision I've made is that if students feel sick, I want them to just stay home. I can get them back up to speed later. My stats assignments can be turned in using either SPSS (which my institution insists on using, much to my disappointment) or Jamovi. The latter can be used off campus with no problems. Any other workshop type activities I offer in my hybrid classes can be easily made up. Most, if not all, are already online. I could handle instructions for most basic assignments in an email in most cases. I could handle something in a Zoom office hour or appointment just as easily. Part of this social contract is that if I am feeling sick, I will also stay home. I have technology available that will allow me to do my job remotely, and will take advantage of that if needed. It's not exactly rocket science. COVID-19 is not through with us yet. We have to do what we can to keep each other safe and healthy, using good judgment and the guidance of the scientists who've done the lion's share of the work to figure out what is safe and what is not. Should be simple, right?<br /></p><p>*Note - on nearly other matter within the scope of this committee, a lot of very good work got done this past academic year. Its leadership team were great at herding cats, and I can only imagine the migraines the rest of us caused them.<br /></p>James Benjaminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05696057339996056906noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9164612039394546240.post-20327045759310933832021-08-03T15:04:00.003-07:002021-08-03T15:04:46.812-07:00The plan is no plan<p>In fairness, my specific campus leadership are doing better within the constraints our legislators have imposed upon us as far as mask mandates, at least in terms of transparency, flexibility in how we manage our office hours and meetings, etc. Not so sure that's happening in the rest of the UA System, especially the flagship campus in Fayetteville, <a href="https://arktimes.com/arkansas-blog/2021/08/03/the-morning-covid-mandates-from-tyson-and-mcdonalds-vax-disparity-among-hospitals-preparedness-at-ua-wornout-nurses" target="_blank">if this has any truth to it</a>:</p><blockquote>Also: A letter from a University of Arkansas staff member about preparations on campus for fall, with preventive hands tied by the legislature. An excerpt referring to a campus meeting:<br /><br /><br /><blockquote>I can sum it up in 6 letters. 1) NO PLAN and 2) for faculty members : WING IT. They don’t even have a plan for when they might pivot. Maybe they are waiting for the state or region to move to Allocation of Care (aka, incorrectly called Death Panels in the past) situations at the local hospitals.<br /><br />It was absurd to watch all the participants (administrators) talk to each other face to face before it began online without masks. Then they virtue signaled, put on their masks, and sat six feet apart.<br /><br />There have been numerous faculty who have sent emails up the food chain asking specific questions about our reopening that are getting ignored completely. It is not clear why we must be 100% open if that is a fear from the legislature or the U of A Board. Yes, all of us would love to be back to normal, but that is not the current state of the covid situation now. And yes, I wish everyone would get the vaccine. It is almost like we are playing the Hunger Games at the U of A by saying that you should just get vaccinated if you don’t like what is happening.<br /><br />Many instructors are concerned as they have members of family under the age of 12. They don’t want to infect their children.<br /><br />While I continue to pray that our students are more vaccinated than the state average and that nearly all of them will follow CDC guidance, I have to say that I bet we have at least 10 to 15+ classrooms around campus with more than 50 students absolutely jammed in shoulder to shoulder. There are two such classrooms in Hillside Auditorium (the largest), two in Chemistry, one in Gearhart (formerly Ozark), several in Science and Engineering, and probably several in Bell Engineering as well although I don’t think those rooms are as tight. There are also some in JB Hunt, perhaps Kimpel as well.<br /><br />At some point, the question becomes, when will BOBBITT act? Are his hands tied for making safety decisions? These kids are going to spread Covid among themselves in this huge classes and then take it back to their families. Surely people are going to die from this decision to act like it is 2019 at the U of A.<br /><br />So many faculty are perplexed. The instructors feel like they cannot ask questions or even comment as they fear for their jobs. It is a weird thing to ask about getting faculty N95 masks and have those emails outright ignored.</blockquote></blockquote><p><br /><br />Then again, my experience with my state's legislators is that we faculty are the enemy. Not sure they're too thrilled with university students, either. Basically, my situation is that questions asked up the food chain do get answered, and I am grateful to have relatively good administrators here. They'll keep supplying PPE as needed, etc. We can't require masks or vaccines, but we are still allowed to make note that they are a good idea. I'd really say that, given the age of some of our buildings, trusting the ventilation systems is probably a really bad idea. But what do I know. </p><p>Then again, there is a lawsuit being filed against the law preventing state agencies and school districts from mandating masks, and if that succeeds, then my system's board of directors will have to make some hard decisions. I'd say the rise in COVID-19 cases should make that decision easier. Better to have a plan very late in the game than continue to have no plan at all. Just good horse sense.<br /></p>James Benjaminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05696057339996056906noreply@blogger.com0